Breakdown of the Quarterback Position
Size
With prospects of all different sizes in this draft class it sure has been a popular topic of discussion this year. Personally, size is a great trait to have but it doesn’t make or break a prospect in my eyes. I say that because if a QB fails in the NFL it’s not because they were too small. It’s because they were below average at the more important aspects of the QB positions such as accuracy, arm strength, decision making etc. Russell Wilson and Drew Brees are the most talked about smaller quarterbacks and they’re exceptional all around players. They’re great leaders with a high football IQ and the arms and accuracy to make most throws. They’re able to exist as pocket passers because they create their own throwing lanes due to great footwork within the pocket and at times with their legs outside of it. Now size is a great trait to have but I’m not sure we always speak about it correctly. Yes, it’s true bigger quarterbacks can see the field and over their lineman more easily but when it comes in most handy is when you’re in the pocket under duress. Bigger quarterbacks are able to stand tall and deliver a pass more easily in a collapsing pocket. Being able to do that is a necessary attribute and that’s where bigger QBs stand out most. How often do we see a QB like, Ben Roethlisberger hang in there, take a hit, just to complete a pass on a crucial down. Being able to hang in the pocket that much longer and deliver a strike can change games.
Pocket Presence / Footwork
Quarterback play starts from the pocket and it’s full of subtle traits. Simple things like having the footwork to drop straight back are an example. A lot of quarterbacks these days rarely take a snap from under center before entering the NFL. Correct footwork needs to be taught because not dropping straight back breaks down the integrity of the pass protections. Suddenly you may be giving pass rushers better angles at you without your lineman knowing. Footwork to step into throws is another thing one must be comfortable doing from the pocket. Not doing so throws off the accuracy and velocity of a pass. With how fast the NFL is these days it’s imperative because every lackadaisical throw can change a game. For example Matt Schaub’s throwing across field off his back foot was picked off by Richard Sherman and swung the Texans season. Being able to navigate the pocket with your eyes down field is another important trait to have. By navigating the pocket I mean being able to feel pressure and sliding laterally and vertically to give you more time while not losing focus on the play developing downfield. It’s these subtle things that separate the elite from the rest of the pack.
Accuracy / Anticipation / Vision
Accuracy might be the most important trait to look for in a Quarterback. With the offenses that are run in college football today looking at a quarterback’s completion percentage in the box score isn’t a great way to assess accuracy. This is where charting passes comes in handy because you’re at least able to get a picture if the player is completing passes to all areas of the field, not just bubble screens and passes within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Another aspect of accuracy is ball placement. In the NFL the windows are tighter, defenses are smarter, man on man coverage is better and you will be forced to place the ball in smaller areas. Having pinpoint touch and accuracy to throw receivers open is a skill that can’t be taught and quarterbacks without it will fail at the next level.
Anticipation and vision build off of accuracy. Being able to view the whole field and anticipate what the defense is throwing at you, when and where the receiver will be open and getting the ball there on time. We see Peyton Manning command his offense and do this on a game to game basis. We can see his anticipation, timing and cohesion with everyone else on offense to make it go. Other spread offenses it’s much harder to scout these characteristics because there are not may intermediate passes and pre-snap readings of coverage.
Arm Strength
Arm strength is certainly not an indicator of NFL success; just ask Ryan Leaf and Tyler Bray. Players such as Andy Dalton get by just fine without having a cannon for an arm. It is a trait to look for though because it gives you an idea of if they can fit passes into tight coverage as well as extend the field. Willingness to use and trust their arm strength is another overlooked aspect. Joe Flacco is always willing to test the intermediate and deeper levels of the field, while Alex Smith refuses to drive the ball down field on a regular basis. Not being able to drive the ball down field is what limits a prospect like AJ McCarron. On throws down field his ball hangs and loses zip on the back end. It’ll be easy pickings for a defensive back in the NFL.
Mobility
I touched on it a bit earlier but mobility within the pocket is imperative to succeed. People who can scramble outside of the pocket are becoming more and more appealing to NFL teams. We can thank the success of Kaepernick, Newton, Wilson, and Vick etc for that. It brings a different element to an offense. There are a couple things to distinguish when evaluating a college quarterback who uses their legs. When scrambling are they making the right decision and not giving up on the play too early? Or are they just relying on being a superior athlete to bail them out. With a new era of offense seemingly upon us the mobility aspect of a quarterbacks game can’t be overlooked. However it’s still a passing league and QBs who are able to maneuver within the pocket will never go away. So mobility is certainly a plus but it’s not required.
Leadership
Leadership is another quality you would love your Quarterback to have. It’s a difficult one to evaluate without knowing the prospect, his teammates and coaches, so I tend to stay away from that. One thing I think you can look for on film is how they command a huddle and lead drives with the game on the line. Are they calm and composed and still going through progressions? Do they make sure everyone is on the same page or do they wilt and let the moment overtake them?
2014 Draft Class
Those were a few things I look for when watching a quarterback but now onto the 2014 NFL Draft class. In general it’s not a special class. There is only one sure-fire 1st round QB in my opinion, and that is Teddy Bridgewater. I think the class is being viewed better than it actually is because five of the top eight teams are arguably looking to upgrade at the position. The reality is that most of these quarterbacks, while talented, are much more of a project than the media is leading on and there isn’t a ton of separation between #2 and #5 on this list.
1. Teddy Bridgewater
I’ve praised Teddy Bridgewater for a while now but he’s such a refined QB prospect. He’s not Andrew Luck but he deserves to be mentioned in the same class as Robert Griffin III. At Louisville he ran an NFL style offense, which required him to read fronts, coverages and take snaps from under center. From a passing standpoint he’s extremely advanced. He sees the field extremely well and goes through his progressions quickly, often throwing guys open on intermediate routes. By throwing guys open, I mean the wideout is covered but with timing, anticipation, accuracy and ball placement you’re still able to complete the pass. Another elite trait that Bridgewater possesses is his pocket movement. He’s always calm and composed under pressure. His ability to slide forward and laterally within the pocket allowing the play to develop and wide receivers to get open is an extremely important skill. It’s what makes someone like Tom Brady so successful. Bridgewater isn’t an elite athlete but his pocket movement and ability to pick up first downs with his legs shows off his functional mobility. Building off of his functional mobility he throws very well on the run to both his left and his right and to every level of the field.
The biggest knock I’ve seen towards Bridgewater is his size. He’s a little over 6’2” and 214 pounds. Much like Robert Griffin III he has narrow hips and shoulders and there doesn’t seem like either are really built to add much weight. Unlike Griffin though Bridgewater won’t be leaving the pocket as often and also makes quicker decision with the ball in his hands. Having better movement within the pocket and getting the ball out quick should limit the number of punishing hits Bridgewater takes. Another knock is his deep ball. He struggles throwing straight vertical routes. Dropping the ball in the bucket along the sidelines is definitely an area where he can improve.
When it’s all said and done I think Bridgewater compares to a more athletic Matt Ryan. His floor is closer to Alex Smith.
2. Blake Bortles
Over the past few weeks Blake Bortles has receive the most buzz of being the #1 pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. Aesthetically there is a lot to like about him. He’s your ideal size, coming in at 6’5”, 232 pounds and has a good head on his shoulders. As it stands now Bortles has all the traits you look for in a prototypical QB. He has great pocket mobility and like Bridgewater has functional mobility and will make plays with his legs. He ran a surprisingly slow 40 at the combine but plays faster on film and I think you can run option concepts with him. One thing that’s hard to teach is keeping your focus downfield and not lowering your eye level under duress. He seems to do a pretty good job of this. Despite his big frame he arm is pretty average but he can extend plays and does throw the ball well on the move. That seems to be the case with him, give him a clean pocket or have him roll out and his velocity picks ups.
One thing that hasn’t been brought up much by the media is that Bortles velocity dipped this past year and that he needs refinement in his mechanics and footwork. Because of this he struggles to drive the ball downfield at times. His release is a little long as well. Once you clean up his footwork and mechanics his arm will get better. These things seem like a quick fix but when under pressure in an actual game scenario players usually resort to what they know best.
Bortles has all the tools but is more of a project than the media is leading on and more than I’d like for a #1 pick. I’d compare him to someone like Jake Locker or Ryan Tannehill who have shown flashes but really have needed a year or two to grown into the position.
3. Derek Carr
Derek Car, the younger brother of former #1 pick David Carr, has been a QB that has been slept on so far in the pre draft process. He’s a very good athlete and has the best arms in the class. He’s produced rave reviews off the field, as a leader and has impressed teams during the combine interviews. During the Senior Bowl he worked with Vanderbilt WR Jordan Matthews after practice to gain a better rapport with him. That work ethic stands out to coaches and is something that is great to see because his transition to the NFL won’t be easy. Carr has an exceptional arm and like many QB’s in this class is able to extend plays with his legs. Carr throws a great deep ball but within the Fresno State offense has been pretty much a picture frame thrower. That means most are at the LOS, sidelines and deep down field. There isn’t much intermediate throws over the middle
Watching Carr, one thing that stands out is his impatience in the pocket. Much like his brother he is very uncomfortable when his space his is threatened and it’s worrisome because I don’t know if it’s a trait that can be taught. I can’t name you a great QB who isn’t comfortable in the pocket at all times. When under pressure Carr’s footwork and mechanics are all out of whack and it usually results with him throwing with all arm. That lowers accuracy and velocity. Due to the offense he ran at Fresno State there wasn’t much pre snap reading of defenses too. So pre and post snap recognition is likely an area for improvement.
Carr certainly has some things to iron out but he shows great work ethic as has the arms to make all the throws. That’s something that can’t be taught. His ceiling as a signal caller is probably around Jay Cutler or Matthew Stafford.
Manziel is one of the most polarizing players in recent memory. His improvisational style of play is intriguing to many but also raises fair questions of it will really translate to the NFL. Before I get into that I’ll touch on some positives of Manziel’s game. Manziel doesn’t have a cannon for an arm but it is NFL caliber. It’s more Andy Dalton than Aaron Rodgers though. He already throws a good deep ball and shows pretty good touch to all levels of the field. Another thing I love about his game is that he’s always putting pressure on the defense with his legs and arm. He’s not afraid to use the whole field and his improvisational style of play isn’t something teams can gameplan for. It’ll certainly be to his advantage at times. Manziel is a skilled and illusive runner and is more quick than fast. Teams looking to incorporate some read-option concepts will find his skill set appealing.
When you look at a QB prospect, what do you hang your hat on with Manziel? It would probably be his play making ability. So Manziel’s one elite trait is making plays outside of structure and living on the edge. My biggest criticism of Manziel’s style of play is that he steps outside of structure when he doesn’t need too. He often passes up throwing to open receivers looking for a bigger play. Offensive Coordinators and QB Coaches break down the defense all week and devise a gameplan and if Manziel doesn’t stick to the script I can see there being issues with that. I wish Manziel would hang in the pocket and watch plays develop longer before he pulls out his Houdini act. His 50/50 balls he’s known for throwing to Mike Evans also won’t fly in the NFL. Being mobile is great but in the NFL I think it’s more important to have structured movement. Have purpose. People have compared his style of play to Russell Wilson and say, well if Wilson won a Super Bowl that means Manziel can too. They are much different as prospect and from a mobility standpoint are very different as well. Wilson’s game is comprised of structured movement. It seems like Manziel moves and then tries to figure it out. People also fail to note that Wilson has a very strong running game and the best defense in the league. A couple other critiques of Manziel are that his ball placement can be erratic at times and he lets the ball hang by his side in the pocket. His big hands are definitely to his advantage but that’s something he’ll have to fix and should be coachable.
If his improvisational style of play is the reason why you think he’ll be a great NFL QB, I struggle with that. When you live on the edge too often you will fall off the cliff. Manziel seems to be a high variance player and an injury risk, much like Michael Vick. Given time to develop I think he can be an effect player in the league but teams will have to be patient.
5. Brett Smith
The most underappreciated QB in this class, Smith has the potential to be the best out of this group. Smith was snubbed of a combine invite but being overlooked is nothing new to him. Despite being the Gatorade Player of the Year for the state of Oregon as a senior in High School he was lightly recruited and didn’t receive an offer from Oregon or Oregon State. He chose Wyoming and over the past 3 years has set school and conference records in the offensive friendly Mountain West Conference. Smith is a dual threat quarterback who stands around 6’2”, 200 pounds and probably runs a 4.6-4.7 range for his 40. As a runner Smith is not as elusive as Manziel but does have straight line speed and willingly runs through arm tackles. As a passer Smith doesn’t have a cannon but does an extremely good job of reading the whole field combining that with his quick release. This came in extremely useful during his time in Laramie, WY because he was rarely given a clean pocket to sit in. Unlike someone like Manziel or McCarron, Smith doesn’t play behind numerous All-Americans. Throwing an accurate pass with 300-pound lineman in your face is an underappreciated skill that Smith was able to do quite well.
There are a couple of obvious knocks when evaluating Smith. One is the competition he faced in the MWC is not top notch and he hasn’t played from under center. Footwork is another area that needs to improve and he even has admitted that. At times Smith tries to squeeze passes into coverage he has no business doing. He has a little gunslinger mentality, which is a pro and a con at times. Smith has an awkward build and his mechanics aren’t aesthetically pleasing but he’s still able to make all the throws. That is something that could be tweaked but I don’t think is necessary. Smith is currently working with former NFL QB Jeff Garcia to polish up his game before the NFL draft.
Smith definitely has the tools to start at the next level but an ideal situation would be to sit in the wings for a year or two and then be thrust into a starting role. This isn’t a comparison of the two players but Kaepernick overtaking Alex Smith, as a starter midway through his second season is an example of what I’m talking about. Maybe a team like Cincinnati drafts Smith to push Dalton and he eventually takes the starting job.
To recap, I think Bridgewater is clearly the best prospect out of the group. Bortles, Carr, Manziel and Smith are all relying on their one elite trait to bail them out in the beginning at the next level. A few will be starting Day 1 and I think expectations should be tapered down a bit as they should be give time to grown into the position. When you’re selecting a Quarterback at the top of the draft you’re risking your career. Ask yourself where the coaches that selected Tebow, Ponder, Gabbert, Locker, Weeden are today. Don’t make an investment unless you’re sure of it. There are always journeymen QB that fill the role temporarily.
