Friday, March 7, 2014

Breakdown of the Quarterback Position - 2014 Draft Class

Breakdown of the Quarterback Position

Quarterback is the most important and complex position in the NFL. Similarly it might be the toughest to evaluate as well. A quarterback has been selected with the #1 pick in 12 of the past 16 drafts. Consequently organizations are putting their faith in 20-something year old kids to turn around their franchise and get them back on the winning path. With Quarterbacks drawing the most media attention I thought I’d give my two cents on evaluating the QB position because it goes far beyond the box scores and measurables.

Size

With prospects of all different sizes in this draft class it sure has been a popular topic of discussion this year. Personally, size is a great trait to have but it doesn’t make or break a prospect in my eyes. I say that because if a QB fails in the NFL it’s not because they were too small. It’s because they were below average at the more important aspects of the QB positions such as accuracy, arm strength, decision making etc. Russell Wilson and Drew Brees are the most talked about smaller quarterbacks and they’re exceptional all around players. They’re great leaders with a high football IQ and the arms and accuracy to make most throws. They’re able to exist as pocket passers because they create their own throwing lanes due to great footwork within the pocket and at times with their legs outside of it. Now size is a great trait to have but I’m not sure we always speak about it correctly. Yes, it’s true bigger quarterbacks can see the field and over their lineman more easily but when it comes in most handy is when you’re in the pocket under duress. Bigger quarterbacks are able to stand tall and deliver a pass more easily in a collapsing pocket. Being able to do that is a necessary attribute and that’s where bigger QBs stand out most. How often do we see a QB like, Ben Roethlisberger hang in there, take a hit, just to complete a pass on a crucial down. Being able to hang in the pocket that much longer and deliver a strike can change games.

Pocket Presence / Footwork

Quarterback play starts from the pocket and it’s full of subtle traits. Simple things like having the footwork to drop straight back are an example. A lot of quarterbacks these days rarely take a snap from under center before entering the NFL. Correct footwork needs to be taught because not dropping straight back breaks down the integrity of the pass protections. Suddenly you may be giving pass rushers better angles at you without your lineman knowing. Footwork to step into throws is another thing one must be comfortable doing from the pocket. Not doing so throws off the accuracy and velocity of a pass. With how fast the NFL is these days it’s imperative because every lackadaisical throw can change a game. For example Matt Schaub’s throwing across field off his back foot was picked off by Richard Sherman and swung the Texans season. Being able to navigate the pocket with your eyes down field is another important trait to have. By navigating the pocket I mean being able to feel pressure and sliding laterally and vertically to give you more time while not losing focus on the play developing downfield. It’s these subtle things that separate the elite from the rest of the pack.

Accuracy / Anticipation / Vision

Accuracy might be the most important trait to look for in a Quarterback. With the offenses that are run in college football today looking at a quarterback’s completion percentage in the box score isn’t a great way to assess accuracy. This is where charting passes comes in handy because you’re at least able to get a picture if the player is completing passes to all areas of the field, not just bubble screens and passes within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Another aspect of accuracy is ball placement. In the NFL the windows are tighter, defenses are smarter, man on man coverage is better and you will be forced to place the ball in smaller areas. Having pinpoint touch and accuracy to throw receivers open is a skill that can’t be taught and quarterbacks without it will fail at the next level.

Anticipation and vision build off of accuracy. Being able to view the whole field and anticipate what the defense is throwing at you, when and where the receiver will be open and getting the ball there on time. We see Peyton Manning command his offense and do this on a game to game basis. We can see his anticipation, timing and cohesion with everyone else on offense to make it go. Other spread offenses it’s much harder to scout these characteristics because there are not may intermediate passes and pre-snap readings of coverage.

Arm Strength

Arm strength is certainly not an indicator of NFL success; just ask Ryan Leaf and Tyler Bray. Players such as Andy Dalton get by just fine without having a cannon for an arm. It is a trait to look for though because it gives you an idea of if they can fit passes into tight coverage as well as extend the field. Willingness to use and trust their arm strength is another overlooked aspect. Joe Flacco is always willing to test the intermediate and deeper levels of the field, while Alex Smith refuses to drive the ball down field on a regular basis. Not being able to drive the ball down field is what limits a prospect like AJ McCarron. On throws down field his ball hangs and loses zip on the back end. It’ll be easy pickings for a defensive back in the NFL.

Mobility

I touched on it a bit earlier but mobility within the pocket is imperative to succeed. People who can scramble outside of the pocket are becoming more and more appealing to NFL teams. We can thank the success of Kaepernick, Newton, Wilson, and Vick etc for that. It brings a different element to an offense. There are a couple things to distinguish when evaluating a college quarterback who uses their legs. When scrambling are they making the right decision and not giving up on the play too early? Or are they just relying on being a superior athlete to bail them out. With a new era of offense seemingly upon us the mobility aspect of a quarterbacks game can’t be overlooked. However it’s still a passing league and QBs who are able to maneuver within the pocket will never go away. So mobility is certainly a plus but it’s not required.

Leadership

Leadership is another quality you would love your Quarterback to have. It’s a difficult one to evaluate without knowing the prospect, his teammates and coaches, so I tend to stay away from that. One thing I think you can look for on film is how they command a huddle and lead drives with the game on the line. Are they calm and composed and still going through progressions? Do they make sure everyone is on the same page or do they wilt and let the moment overtake them?


2014 Draft Class

Those were a few things I look for when watching a quarterback but now onto the 2014 NFL Draft class. In general it’s not a special class. There is only one sure-fire 1st round QB in my opinion, and that is Teddy Bridgewater. I think the class is being viewed better than it actually is because five of the top eight teams are arguably looking to upgrade at the position. The reality is that most of these quarterbacks, while talented, are much more of a project than the media is leading on and there isn’t a ton of separation between #2 and #5 on this list.

1. Teddy Bridgewater

I’ve praised Teddy Bridgewater for a while now but he’s such a refined QB prospect. He’s not Andrew Luck but he deserves to be mentioned in the same class as Robert Griffin III. At Louisville he ran an NFL style offense, which required him to read fronts, coverages and take snaps from under center. From a passing standpoint he’s extremely advanced. He sees the field extremely well and goes through his progressions quickly, often throwing guys open on intermediate routes. By throwing guys open, I mean the wideout is covered but with timing, anticipation, accuracy and ball placement you’re still able to complete the pass. Another elite trait that Bridgewater possesses is his pocket movement. He’s always calm and composed under pressure. His ability to slide forward and laterally within the pocket allowing the play to develop and wide receivers to get open is an extremely important skill. It’s what makes someone like Tom Brady so successful. Bridgewater isn’t an elite athlete but his pocket movement and ability to pick up first downs with his legs shows off his functional mobility. Building off of his functional mobility he throws very well on the run to both his left and his right and to every level of the field.

The biggest knock I’ve seen towards Bridgewater is his size. He’s a little over 6’2” and 214 pounds. Much like Robert Griffin III he has narrow hips and shoulders and there doesn’t seem like either are really built to add much weight. Unlike Griffin though Bridgewater won’t be leaving the pocket as often and also makes quicker decision with the ball in his hands. Having better movement within the pocket and getting the ball out quick should limit the number of punishing hits Bridgewater takes. Another knock is his deep ball. He struggles throwing straight vertical routes. Dropping the ball in the bucket along the sidelines is definitely an area where he can improve.

When it’s all said and done I think Bridgewater compares to a more athletic Matt Ryan. His floor is closer to Alex Smith.


2. Blake Bortles

Over the past few weeks Blake Bortles has receive the most buzz of being the #1 pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. Aesthetically there is a lot to like about him. He’s your ideal size, coming in at 6’5”, 232 pounds and has a good head on his shoulders. As it stands now Bortles has all the traits you look for in a prototypical QB. He has great pocket mobility and like Bridgewater has functional mobility and will make plays with his legs. He ran a surprisingly slow 40 at the combine but plays faster on film and I think you can run option concepts with him. One thing that’s hard to teach is keeping your focus downfield and not lowering your eye level under duress. He seems to do a pretty good job of this. Despite his big frame he arm is pretty average but he can extend plays and does throw the ball well on the move. That seems to be the case with him, give him a clean pocket or have him roll out and his velocity picks ups.

One thing that hasn’t been brought up much by the media is that Bortles velocity dipped this past year and that he needs refinement in his mechanics and footwork. Because of this he struggles to drive the ball downfield at times. His release is a little long as well. Once you clean up his footwork and mechanics his arm will get better. These things seem like a quick fix but when under pressure in an actual game scenario players usually resort to what they know best.

Bortles has all the tools but is more of a project than the media is leading on and more than I’d like for a #1 pick. I’d compare him to someone like Jake Locker or Ryan Tannehill who have shown flashes but really have needed a year or two to grown into the position.


3. Derek Carr

Derek Car, the younger brother of former #1 pick David Carr, has been a QB that has been slept on so far in the pre draft process. He’s a very good athlete and has the best arms in the class. He’s produced rave reviews off the field, as a leader and has impressed teams during the combine interviews. During the Senior Bowl he worked with Vanderbilt WR Jordan Matthews after practice to gain a better rapport with him. That work ethic stands out to coaches and is something that is great to see because his transition to the NFL won’t be easy. Carr has an exceptional arm and like many QB’s in this class is able to extend plays with his legs. Carr throws a great deep ball but within the Fresno State offense has been pretty much a picture frame thrower. That means most are at the LOS, sidelines and deep down field. There isn’t much intermediate throws over the middle

Watching Carr, one thing that stands out is his impatience in the pocket. Much like his brother he is very uncomfortable when his space his is threatened and it’s worrisome because I don’t know if it’s a trait that can be taught. I can’t name you a great QB who isn’t comfortable in the pocket at all times. When under pressure Carr’s footwork and mechanics are all out of whack and it usually results with him throwing with all arm. That lowers accuracy and velocity. Due to the offense he ran at Fresno State there wasn’t much pre snap reading of defenses too. So pre and post snap recognition is likely an area for improvement.

Carr certainly has some things to iron out but he shows great work ethic as has the arms to make all the throws. That’s something that can’t be taught. His ceiling as a signal caller is probably around Jay Cutler or Matthew Stafford.


4. Johnny Manziel

Manziel is one of the most polarizing players in recent memory. His improvisational style of play is intriguing to many but also raises fair questions of it will really translate to the NFL. Before I get into that I’ll touch on some positives of Manziel’s game. Manziel doesn’t have a cannon for an arm but it is NFL caliber. It’s more Andy Dalton than Aaron Rodgers though. He already throws a good deep ball and shows pretty good touch to all levels of the field. Another thing I love about his game is that he’s always putting pressure on the defense with his legs and arm. He’s not afraid to use the whole field and his improvisational style of play isn’t something teams can gameplan for. It’ll certainly be to his advantage at times. Manziel is a skilled and illusive runner and is more quick than fast. Teams looking to incorporate some read-option concepts will find his skill set appealing.

When you look at a QB prospect, what do you hang your hat on with Manziel? It would probably be his play making ability. So Manziel’s one elite trait is making plays outside of structure and living on the edge. My biggest criticism of Manziel’s style of play is that he steps outside of structure when he doesn’t need too. He often passes up throwing to open receivers looking for a bigger play. Offensive Coordinators and QB Coaches break down the defense all week and devise a gameplan and if Manziel doesn’t stick to the script I can see there being issues with that. I wish Manziel would hang in the pocket and watch plays develop longer before he pulls out his Houdini act. His 50/50 balls he’s known for throwing to Mike Evans also won’t fly in the NFL. Being mobile is great but in the NFL I think it’s more important to have structured movement. Have purpose. People have compared his style of play to Russell Wilson and say, well if Wilson won a Super Bowl that means Manziel can too. They are much different as prospect and from a mobility standpoint are very different as well. Wilson’s game is comprised of structured movement. It seems like Manziel moves and then tries to figure it out. People also fail to note that Wilson has a very strong running game and the best defense in the league. A couple other critiques of Manziel are that his ball placement can be erratic at times and he lets the ball hang by his side in the pocket. His big hands are definitely to his advantage but that’s something he’ll have to fix and should be coachable.

If his improvisational style of play is the reason why you think he’ll be a great NFL QB, I struggle with that. When you live on the edge too often you will fall off the cliff. Manziel seems to be a high variance player and an injury risk, much like Michael Vick. Given time to develop I think he can be an effect player in the league but teams will have to be patient.


5. Brett Smith

The most underappreciated QB in this class, Smith has the potential to be the best out of this group. Smith was snubbed of a combine invite but being overlooked is nothing new to him. Despite being the Gatorade Player of the Year for the state of Oregon as a senior in High School he was lightly recruited and didn’t receive an offer from Oregon or Oregon State. He chose Wyoming and over the past 3 years has set school and conference records in the offensive friendly Mountain West Conference. Smith is a dual threat quarterback who stands around 6’2”, 200 pounds and probably runs a 4.6-4.7 range for his 40. As a runner Smith is not as elusive as Manziel but does have straight line speed and willingly runs through arm tackles. As a passer Smith doesn’t have a cannon but does an extremely good job of reading the whole field combining that with his quick release. This came in extremely useful during his time in Laramie, WY because he was rarely given a clean pocket to sit in. Unlike someone like Manziel or McCarron, Smith doesn’t play behind numerous All-Americans. Throwing an accurate pass with 300-pound lineman in your face is an underappreciated skill that Smith was able to do quite well.

There are a couple of obvious knocks when evaluating Smith. One is the competition he faced in the MWC is not top notch and he hasn’t played from under center. Footwork is another area that needs to improve and he even has admitted that. At times Smith tries to squeeze passes into coverage he has no business doing. He has a little gunslinger mentality, which is a pro and a con at times. Smith has an awkward build and his mechanics aren’t aesthetically pleasing but he’s still able to make all the throws. That is something that could be tweaked but I don’t think is necessary. Smith is currently working with former NFL QB Jeff Garcia to polish up his game before the NFL draft.

Smith definitely has the tools to start at the next level but an ideal situation would be to sit in the wings for a year or two and then be thrust into a starting role. This isn’t a comparison of the two players but Kaepernick overtaking Alex Smith, as a starter midway through his second season is an example of what I’m talking about. Maybe a team like Cincinnati drafts Smith to push Dalton and he eventually takes the starting job.


To recap, I think Bridgewater is clearly the best prospect out of the group. Bortles, Carr, Manziel and Smith are all relying on their one elite trait to bail them out in the beginning at the next level. A few will be starting Day 1 and I think expectations should be tapered down a bit as they should be give time to grown into the position. When you’re selecting a Quarterback at the top of the draft you’re risking your career. Ask yourself where the coaches that selected Tebow, Ponder, Gabbert, Locker, Weeden are today. Don’t make an investment unless you’re sure of it. There are always journeymen QB that fill the role temporarily.

Thursday, February 6, 2014

2014 NFL Mock Draft


2014 NFL MOCK DRAFT
(What Would I Do Version)

1.     Houston Texans – Teddy Bridgewater – Louisville – QB

Bridgewater is the most NFL ready QB in the draft. An advantage he has over the other upper echelon QB’s in this class is that he played in a pro-style offense for 3 years at Louisville.  I believe he has all the tools that you need to succeed in the NFL and more importantly in Bill O’Brien’s offense. He might not have the size of Bortles, or the illusiveness and fanfare of Manziel but he’s far and away the best prospect on my board and should allow the Texans to make a quick turnaround.

2.     St Louis Rams – Jadeveon Clowney – South Carolina – DE

Yes, the Rams do have Robert Quinn and Chris Long but I’d still take Clowney. I would rather have the best defensive line in football (Long, Brockers, Quinn, Clowney) than have a slight upgrade at offensive tackle. You can never have enough pass rushers and Clowney is a special talent. Chris Long is a nice player but most people don’t take pay cuts on their second contract. Drafting Clowney allows you to let Long walk in 2 years without having to fill his spot. Most mocks have them taking an offensive tackle, either Matthews or Robinson. If they were to take one of those I would prefer Matthews. He’s more polished all around.

3.     Jacksonville Jaguars – Khalil Mack – Buffalo – OLB

The Jaguars are in great hands with Gus Bradley at the helm. Much like Pete Carroll, he’s all about pushing players all while maintaining a positive culture. As the coach of the South team at the Senior Bowl this year he stole the show. I have full confidence that he’ll turn the Jaguars around and it all starts with him rebuilding their D. Khalil Mack would be a perfect fit coming off the edge. If he didn’t play his whole career at Buffalo he would be a household name.

4.     Cleveland Browns – Johnny Manziel – Texas A&M – QB

It seems like the Browns are getting everything in place to select and build around a player like Johnny Manziel. They’ve made it known they’re looking to make a splash and have recently hired former Redskins OC, Kyle Shanahan. Even though I’m not as high on Manziel as most, considering everything it probably is the right selection. Manziel has so much to work on when it comes to being a pocket passer. I would ideally sign a QB like Ryan Fitzpatrick or Michael Vick who can still run Shanahan’s O and give Manziel a year to learn and grow but I doubt that’s the case. Remember he is only 21 years old and has some exceptional tools to build around. I just question him being a Day 1 starter. If nothing else he’ll be fun to watch and the Browns will matter again.

5.     Oakland Raiders – Sammy Watkins – Clemson – WR

Poor Raiders, they have basically whiffed on their last 6 1st Round Picks (Fabian Washington, Michael Huff, JaMarcus Russell, Darren McFadden, Darius Heyward-Bey, Rolando McClain) I think Sammy Watkins is an elite prospect and a near can’t miss. The Raiders haven’t had a 1,000 Yard WR since Randy Moss in 2005. Before that it was Jerry Rice in 2002. They do need a QB but with the cap space they have I’d rather sign a guy like McCown, Vick, Schaub etc to bridge the gap instead of investing the next couple of years in developing a QB. Raiders management is already under enough pressure to improve.

6.     Atlanta Falcons – Jake Matthews – Texas A&M – OT

The Falcons desperately need help on both the offensive and defensive lines and I think they would be ecstatic if they were able to pick up a tackle like Jake Matthews. He might not be the explosive athlete that Greg Robinson is but he’s a much more proven pass protector and protecting Matt Ryan should be their main priority.

7.     Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CJ Mosley – Alabama – ILB

Tampa Bay is in an interesting spot. It wouldn’t hurt to get a guy like Greg Robinson to solidify the offensive line but I like the idea of Lovie Smith building his defense. CJ Mosley would be a perfect fit in Lovie Smith’s D. Mosley is in the mold of a Brian Urlacher/Sean Lee where he can do everything. For what it’s worth Mason Foster was the 32nd rated ILB by Pro Football Focus this past year.

8.     Minnesota Vikings – Blake Bortles – UCF – QB

New coaches and new QB’s seems to go hand in hand. Bortles as a prospect is a more accurate Locker. It took Locker a couple years to mature into a legitimate starter and I expect the same for Bortles. The Vikings certainly have some holes to fill on defense but they can use their early 2nd round pick and extra 3rd round pick acquired in the Harvin trade to add depth.

9.     Buffalo Bills – Eric Ebron – North Carolina – TE

The Bills need to continue to surround QB EJ Manual with talent. Ebron is a beast and might be one of the best TE prospects since Vernon Davis. I personally like the speed the Bills would have all around their offense starting with Manual, Spiller, Ebron, Goodwin etc.

10.  Detroit Lions – HaHa Clinton-Dix – Alabama – S

If Sammy Watkins is here you take him but since he’s off the board I think Detroit should take the best available defensive back. Safeties are at a premium in this league and can really transform a defense on the backend. We’ve seen these past couple of weeks how a safety like Earl Thomas shuts down the middle of the field. Mark Barron went #7 overall in 2012 and I think Clinton-Dix is a better all around player coming out. Passing up on a WR like Mike Evans might also be hard but remember this is an incredibly deep WR class and you still have inconsistent Matt Stafford at the helm. Regardless of how much talent you surround him with it all depends on him taking the next leap.

11.  Tennessee Titans – Anthony Barr - UCLA - OLB

Tennessee would love to acquire an elite pass rusher and Barr definitely has the tools to do that. He’s a freak athlete who right now wins with speed and I think new Defensive Coordinator, Ray Horton, could really develop him. Horton turned Daryl Washington into an All-Pro during his time in Arizona.

12.  New York Giants – Greg Robinson – Auburn - OT

The Giants would have loved to have Mosley fall to them but they ended up getting a steal in Greg Robinson. Robinson is an incredible athlete for his size and a dominant run blocker. Part of the reason why the Giants got off to such a poor start this year is because they couldn’t protect Eli. The Giants signed OT Will Beatty to a huge contract last offseason and he rewarded them by having a disastrous year. Beatty gave up an NFL leading 13 sacks. Drafting Robinson gives them the flexibility to move Pugh and Beatty around as they choose to solidify the line.

13.  St Louis Rams – Taylor Lewan - Michigan - OT

The Rams are up again and I have them addressing their offensive line this time. Jake Long isn’t a young pup anymore and will be coming off a torn ACL and MCL. OT Rodger Saffold will be a free agent so I think this would be a smart decision. I look for the Rams to improve their secondary and add more weapons at wide out in the upcoming rounds.

14.  Chicago Bears – Louis Nix – Notre Dame - DT

The Bears were last in the NFL at stopping the run this past year and had some of the worst safety play in the NFL. I think giving Henry Melton the Franchise Tag and drafting Nix would be a great start improving the 2nd worst defense in the league. Nix has received some criticism for having a down year but to his defense he was injured. 

15.  Pittsburgh Steelers – Timmy Jernigan – Florida State – DT

The Steelers have plenty of needs (OT/DT/CB/S/WR) so this was a tough selection. The Steelers were 21st against the run and 25th in sacks this past so getting a hybrid DT in Jernigan who can do both seems like a great fit. WR is definitely an option since Emmanual Sanders is likely leaving. Ike Taylor is getting up there in age so a DB like Justin Gilbert was also tempting.

16.  Baltimore Ravens – Mike Evans – Texas A&M – WR

The Ravens offense definitely sputtered this past year. Dennis Pitta is a free agent and Ed Dickson has been a disappointment so they really lacked a playmaker alongside Torrey Smith. Mike Evans is too good to pass up here. Michael Oher and Eugene Monroe are free agents and probably only have enough money to resign one of them. Alabama OT Cyrus Kouandjio was hard to pass up.

17.  Dallas Cowboys – Calvin Pryor – Louisville – S

Dallas two biggest needs are at safety and defensive line. I have them addressing the safety position. Pryor is a rangy hard-hitting safety that still needs some work in coverage. Had I gone the defensive line route Aaron Donald and Kony Ealy would’ve been the selection. I feel there is solid depth there this year and they can address it in the 2nd round.

18.  New York Jets – Jace Amaro – Texas Tech – TE

The Jets have arguably the worst set of skill position players in the NFL. Tight End is a need for the Jets and Amaro will create mismatches from Day 1. Amaro has some concerns as how he’ll hold up as a blocker in the NFL but I use him in the mold a la Jimmy Graham, who was split wide on 70+% of snaps last year.  Marqise Lee and Odell Beckham would have been great selections here but considering the depth at WR I’d rather take a talent like Amaro.

19.  Miami Dolphins – Zach Martin – Notre Dame – OT

Ryan Tannehill was sacked a league high 59 times this past year (11 higher than the next best, Joe Flacco, 48) so maybe now the Dolphins will address their offensive line problems. Last year they moved up to #3 in the draft and everyone thought it was to draft Lane Johnson. Well they took Dion Jordan who had a very quiet rookie year. They also passed on trading for Brandon Albert last offseason and considering the whole Incognito & Jon Martin situation it’s safe to say their line is a mess. Zach Martin had a great Senior Bowl and looks to be one of the safest linemen in the draft. The jury still isn’t out if he’s a G or T at the next level but either way I think this is a great pick.

20.  Arizona Cardinals – Justin Gilbert – Oklahoma State – DB

The Cardinals had an impressive season despite not making the playoffs but they still have some large holes to fill. Their OL could use some improvements. They need a young pass rusher. They relied on the ageless John Abraham this past year. Another option they could go is selecting a DB to matchup alongside Patrick Peterson. Sometimes a great secondary creates the pass rush you need. In Gilbert they get the rangy elite athlete that is the top DB on most boards. If Peterson wants to leave the same way Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie did they’ll have a #1 waiting in the wing.

21.  Green Bay Packers – Jimmie Ward – Northern Illinois – S

I was torn on this selection. I think the Packers need to address either their secondary or defensive line in the 1st Round. The top 2 safeties are off the board but I still think Jimmie Ward is a great fit. Ward is a true free safety that can line up anywhere. He’s had a great postseason and was named the Most Outstanding Defensive Back at the Senior Bowl. Ward is around 5’11 190 pounds but has a 6’4” wingspan. His coverage abilities might be the best in this safety class, giving him the ability, I believe, to even play nickel corner.

RaShede Hageman has been a popular choice here in mock drafts lately. He’s probably the 2nd most physically gifted DL in the draft (behind Clowney) and can play anywhere along the line. With all that being said his natural talent hasn’t fully translated to the field. In the games of his that I’ve watched he wasn’t really a factor in the run game at all. He has all the potential in the world but right now stands as a boom or bust prospect. I’m sick of the Packers wasting early picks on defensive lineman they fail to develop especially when their window is closing.

22.  Philadelphia Eagles – Odell Beckham Jr – LSU – WR

Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin are free agents and Jason Avant’s time in Philadelphia may also be over. Odell Beckham would be a perfect fit in Chip Kelly’s offense. His ability to create in space is special and despite his lack of size is pretty physical. Also has experience returning punts and kicks. Philadelphia needs secondary help but I love this fit too much.

23.  Kansas City Chiefs – Bradley Roby – Ohio State – DB

The Chiefs biggest needs are at WR, TE and FS. Unfortunately at this pick I don’t think there is a TE or Safety worth selecting here. I think they’d be happy getting a 1st Round talent in Bradley Roby and take a WR who slips to them in the later rounds. He had spectacular sophomore year but disappointed some this year. I also think Roby offers some versatility. If he doesn’t work out at corner I could definitely see him transition to become a FS.

24.  Cincinnati Bengals – Jason Verrett – TCU – DB

With Leon Hall coming off another Achilles injury, Terrance Newman turning 36 and Dre Kirkpatrick disappointing I definitely think Cincinnati takes the top DB left on the board here. I think Verrett would be a perfect fit. Outside of height I think he’s the total package. He’s a willing tackler, able to play man coverage both press and off.

25.  San Diego Chargers – Darqueze Dennard – Michigan State – DB

Dennard’s fallen a little bit but should be starting from Day 1 for the Chargers who are in desperate need of improving their secondary. Dennard uses his hands too much for my liking and I think that’ll lead to penalties at the next level. He very comfortable in man coverage and makes the WR play at his pace

26.  Cleveland Browns – Marqise Lee – USC – WR

The Browns get a great value here in Marqise Lee. His hands were shaky this past year, which I know Browns fans are sick of seeing (Top 3 WR dropped 31 passes last year), but pairing him up with Gordon & Cameron is an exceptional young core to build around Manziel. Lee reminds a bit of Reggie Wayne, who also went late in the 1st round.

27.  New Orleans Saints – Cyrus Kouandjio - Alabama – OT

Protecting Drew Brees should always be the Saints #1 priority and with their RT Zach Strief being a free agent it makes all the sense in the world to find his replacement by drafting Cyrus Kouandjio. He’s an exceptional athlete who I think would be best off starting out as a RT. I would love to see Rob Ryan gets an elite pass rusher here but they’ll have to wait until Round 2.

28.  Carolina Panthers – Bradin Cooks – Oregon State – WR

The Panthers have neglected to surround Cam Newton with any talent at the WR position and with Steve Smith getting up there in age I think you have his replacement in Brandin Cooks. Cooks won the Biletnikoff Award this past year and has exceptional speed and agility.

29.  New England Patriots – Ra’Shede Hageman – Minnesota – DT

As I stated earlier Hageman is one of the most physically gifted lineman in this class. He has the size of former Patriots great, Richard Seymour. A Chandler Jones, Wilfork, Hagemen defensive front would definitely be imposing. The Patriots might not be great at drafting WR’s but they seem to squeeze the most out each player at every other position.

30.  San Francisco 49ers - Jarvis Landry – LSU – WR

The 49ers biggest need is probably at corner and with 13 potential picks I think they could definitely move to get one. With what is left on the board though I think they’ll look to bolster their offense. The 49ers are a much more dynamic team with Crabtree in the lineup and with Boldin being a free agent they’ll look for a WR like Jarvis Landry. Landry was the safety net for Zach Mettenberger much like Crabtree is to Kaepernick. He also brings the toughness that the 49ers will love.

31.  Denver Broncos – Ryan Shazier – Ohio State – OLB

With Chris Harris tearing his ACL and Champ Bailey’s starting days coming to an end the Broncos would really like to get a DB here that could immediately step in. With 4 DB’s already off the board I think they upgrade at outside linebacker. Shazier is a personal favorite of mine. He flies around like a missile and should be a 3-down OLB at the next level.

32.  Seattle Seahawks – Xavier Su-a-Filo – UCLA – OG

The Seahawks biggest area of weakness is their offensive line.  JR Sweezy and James Carpenter were the 52nd and 66th ranked guard by Pro Football Focus this year. Too often this season Russell Wilson was scrambling for life his life on passing plays. Su’a-Filo would fit nicely into their zone blocking scheme and should be able start right away. 

Monday, September 2, 2013

2014 NFL Mock Draft


With the NFL 2013 Season only a few days away I thought I'd have some fun and create a 2014 Mock Draft.

1. Oakland Raiders – Teddy Bridgewater – QB – Louisville

They’re having a QB battle between Matt Flynn and Terrelle Pryor right now. Would you rather have Aaron Rodgers or a once in a decade defensive talent? We’ve recently seen how QBs can turn around a franchise. I’m going with Bridgewater without much thought.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jadeveon Clowney – DE – South Carolina

Clowney is a once in a decade defensive talent and an amazing consolation prize. The Jaguars have been terrible in recent years at drafting defensive lineman (Tyson Alualu, Derrick Harvey, Quentin Groves, Andre Branch) but with Clowney they can’t miss.

3. Buffalo Bills – Taylor Lewan – LT – Michigan

Doug Marrone and the Bills picked up their franchise QB in EJ Manuel now they’ll attempt to protect him. Lewan arguably would have been a Top 10 pick last year too.

4. New York Jets – Sammy Watkins – WR – Clemson

The Jets desperately need to surround Geno Smith with some talent on offense. Mark Sanchez was never the answer but the supporting cast he had to work with was pathetic. Sammy Watkins has all the tools to be a playmaker in the NFL. We saw the chemistry Geno Smith had with Tavon Austin at West Virginia maybe he can have the same success with Watkins.

5. San Diego Chargers – Jake Matthews – LT – Texas A&M

The Chargers could take their biggest weakness in recent years and turn it to strength for years to come with the acquisition of Matthews at LT. DJ Fluker who was selected in April should hold down the other tackle position.

6. Tennessee Titans – Marcus Mariota – QB – Oregon

If the Titans are picking at 6 it’s probably because of Jake Locker and that means it’s time to move on. Marcus Mariota has the physical tools to duplicate what Colin Kapernick has done in San Francisco. While Kaepernick has a much stronger arm Mariota still has room to grow. He’s only 19.

7. Arizona Cardinals – Anthony Barr – OLB – UCLA

With teams passing more and Tight Ends becoming more athletic by the year there is a need to have someone who can rush the passer and cover in space. Barr fits this mold. In his first year at linebacker he record 13 Sacks and 21 Tackles For Loss. Considering Daryl Washington, an ILB, led the team in sacks last year I definitely think Barr would be the right pick. Carson Palmer isn’t the long term solution at QB but I think there is still great value at QB in the 2nd round. They could pick up someone like Cornell’s Jeff Mathews, Miami’s Stephen Morris, SJSU David Fales, Wyoming Brett Smith.

Sidenote: Has there ever been a quieter 4 game suspension than Daryl Washington’s? 134 tackles, 9 sacks, 2 FF, 1 FR, 1 INT – 2nd Team All-Pro last year.

8. Philadelphia Eagles – Bradley Roby – DB – Ohio State

Everyone will want the Eagles and Chip Kelly to select De’Anthony Thomas but I think the right move would be to grab Bradley Roby. Philadelphia really lacks depth in the secondary and in a division with Dez Bryant, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nick that’s not a good weakness to have.

9. Minnesota Vikings – Aaron Lynch – DE – South Florida

Aaron Lynch was a Freshman All-American at Notre Dame who transferred to South Florida. Lynch is 6’6” 245 LBS and is a freak athlete. He’s got an enormous ceiling and is said to be more impressive than Jason Pierre-Paul when he was a USF. Jared Allen is a year older and will be a free agent after this season. With the upside that Lynch brings and the depth at QB in this draft the Vikings might wait until Round 2 to address that position.

10.  Cleveland Browns – Tajh Boyd – QB – Clemson

I like what the Browns have going for them. They’ve built a nice defense equipped with plenty of pass rushers. They’re getting more talented at the offensive skill positions and I think with better QB play they could compete for a playoff spot. I think they give Weeden another year at the helm to see what he’s got and then move on. Boyd has plenty of tools to succeed at the NFL. I see a little Donovan McNabb and Troy Smith in him.

11. Carolina Panthers – Marqise Lee – WR – USC

Marquis Lee is a very polished receiver who would fit in perfectly alongside Steve Smith. The Panthers have lacked a worthwhile #2 WR for years now and while I still think they’ll have to address the secondary I think Lee is the right choice.

12. Detroit Lions – CJ Mosley - OLB – Alabama

Mosley is one of the most NFL ready prospects in college football. Linebacker is an area that could use some improvement and I think Mosley would start right away in Detroit. Plus how can the Lions possibly pass up the opportunity to have two CJ Mosley’s on their team?  (CJ Mosley, 9 year vet backing up Fairley at DT)

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Khalil Mack – LB – Buffalo

I think Freeman plays well enough this year to keep his job and receives a reasonable extension. They could use a playmaking Tight End like Austin Seferian-Jenkins but I think they decide to improve their defense and select Khalil Mack. Mack isn’t a household name but will become one soon. This past weekend vs Ohio State he finished with 9 tackles, 2.5 sacks and an interception returned for a touchdown. He’s 6'3" 245 LB and runs a 4.65 – 40.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers – Louis Nix – DT – Notre Dame

They very well could address their offensive line, which has looked suspect yet again, but I have them going with Louis Nix here. Nix reminds people a lot of BJ Raji and would certainly fill an area of need at NT. With the defense getting older and older I like the recent move of drafting Jarvis Jones and think they should continue getting younger on that side of the ball.

15. Miami Dolphins – Cyrus Kouandijo – OT – Alabama

With Jake Long’s departure the Dolphins have a huge hole to fill. They spent $100 million on WR this offseason and they wont be able to use them if Tannehill is always lying on his back. Kouandijo is now the anchor of the Alabama offensive line and with another strong year he should go in the top half of the 1st Round.

16. Kansas City Chiefs – Stephon Tuitt – DE – Notre Dame

Tuitt’s been extremely productive at Notre Dame and would be a great fit in Kansas City.  I think he could step in and be more productive than Mike DeVito and Tyson Jackson.


17. St Louis Rams –  Austin Seferian-Jenkins – TE – Washington

As I stated earlier Austin Seferian-Jenkins is an animal who is currently rewriting the record books at Washington. He’s 6’6” 270 LBS and a mismatch for defenders. He has had some off the field troubles but might be too talented of a weapon for the Rams to pass up. They rolled the dice on Janoris Jenkins a couple years ago and that turned out just fine.

18. Chicago Bears – Ryan Shazier – LB – Ohio State

I thought about having the Bears go with a CB here because Tim Jennings and Charles Tillman are both over 30 and Free Agents but with Urlacher retired and Briggs 33 years old I think they try to get another playmaker in the mix.

19. Dallas Cowboys – De’Anthony Thomas – OW – Oregon

I have to think De’Anthony Thomas will go in the first round it is just a question of where. He’s not the WR and route runner Tavon Austin was but is still a special talent. What better stage for him than Jerry’s World.


20. New York Giants – Ifo Ekpre-Olomu – CB – Oregon

The Giants love stock piling pass rushers but I think they need to invest in a CB. Corey Webster really struggled this past season and Prince Amukamara has either been a disappointment or injured. Ifo Ekpre-Olomu lacks a bit in the height region but has the speed and ball skills you like to see in a CB.

21. Indianapolis Colts – Loucheiz Purifoy – CB – Florida

This looks to be a CB rich draft with is great news for the Colts who need help badly in the secondary. Purifoy has the size, speed, and skill to excel at the next level. He’s listed At 6-feet, 190 ponds and runs a sub-4.4 40.  Purifoy was suspended for Florida’s season opener so he has some ground to make up.

22. Baltimore Ravens – Jordan Matthews – WR – Vanderbilt

Baltimore really needs help at WR and I think Matthews would be a perfect complement to Torrey Smith. Matthews has nice size at 6’3” 200 and can play anywhere on the field. Considering they gave the keys to Joe Flacco they might as well surround him with talent to succeed.


23. New Orleans Saints – Kyle Van Noy – OLB – BYU

Rob Ryan has come and in brought his 3-4 defense with him. The Saints lack pass rushers and Van Noy brings just that. Van Noy recorded 13 sacks and 22 tackles for loss last season. He is a little undersized at 6’3” 235 but he could possibly play a hybrid DE/OLB role like Von Miller. You pair him with Cam Jordan and that could be a productive duo for years to come.

24. St Louis Rams (Washington Redskins) – Lache Seastrunk – RB – Baylor

I love Lache Seastrunk and although I think Daryl Richardson is a serviceable starter in the NFL I think they try and get a home run hitter in Seastrunk. Seastrunk is an explosive runner who can cut on a dime. He apparently ran a 4.36 40 this offseason. I think he’s in for a huge year. Would like to see him more involved in the passing game.

25. Cincinnati Bengals – Kareem Martin – DE – UNC

The Bengals quietly have one of the most complete rosters in the NFL. How far they go this year I think rests on Andy Dalton’s shoulders. I have them taking Kareem Martin here because I think Michael Johnson will be too expensive to keep. He’s got similar size to Johnson in that he’s 6’6” 265 but needs to be a little more productive on the field.

26. Green Bay Packers – James Hurst – OT – UNC

Packer fans are hoping third time is the charm. With the injuries to recent 1st Round Picks Bryan Bulaga and Derrick Sherrod I think the Packers need to look for OT help again. Hurst held his own against Jadeveon Clowney last week and if he continues to impress I think he would be a steal at the end of the 1st. He’s got great size at 6’7” 305.

27. Houston Texans – Ha’Sean Clinton-Dix – S – Alabama

Clinton-Dix is the total package and would be a huge addition to the Texans secondary that has struggled in recent years. Clinton-Dix finished this year past year strong having interceptions in his final 3 games vs. Auburn, Georgia and Notre Dame. Ed Reed is near retirement and DJ Swearinger was drafted this past season but I think Clinton-Dix is more of a sure thing going forward.

28. Atlanta Falcons – Dominique Easley – DT – Florida

I’m higher on Easley than most but I think he’d be a great addition to the Falcons defensive line that needs pass rushers. Easley is a bit of a “tweener” when it comes to his position because of his size (6’2” 280) but he’s one of the quickest off the ball in college football. I think he’s in for a huge year.

29. New England Patriots – Brandon Coleman – WR – Rutgers

Naturally the Patriots would pick Brandon Coleman because he went to Rutgers but in all seriousness I think it would be a great selection. Coleman has outstanding size at 6’6” 220 with enough speed. Could certainly help stretch the field.

30. Seattle Seahawks – Cyril Richardson – G – Baylor

Guard is a position they haven’t had a consistent presence at the past couple of years. I wasn’t impressed with JR Sweezy this preseason. The Seahawks would be ecstatic if Richardson fell to them at 30. Richardson was the Big 12 Lineman Of The Year last season.

31. Denver Broncos – Jason Verrett – CB – TCU

Champ Bailey will be another year older and we have no clue which Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will show up this year. Jason Verrett is one of the better cover corners in college football and is all over the field. A knock on him is his size (5’10” 182 LBS). He should find a spot in the 1st round this year.

32. San Francisco 49ers – Aaron Colvin – CB – Oklahoma

The 49ers have a plethora of picks so they could go many directions with this and it wouldn’t matter. I think they try to impove the secondary. Carlos Rogers, Asomugha and Whitner may not be around in a couple years and Aaron Colvin would help provide some depth.  He has played both corner and safety at Oklahoma.